A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
